JPMorgan Chase has projected that the global stablecoin market could expand to between $500 billion and $600 billion by 2028, reflecting steady but restrained growth compared with some of the most optimistic forecasts circulating in the digital asset industry. The bank noted that total stablecoin supply has increased by roughly $100 billion over the past year, reaching around $308 billion, with the expansion largely concentrated in dollar-pegged tokens such as USDT and USDC. According to the assessment, recent growth highlights sustained demand within crypto markets rather than a broad shift toward everyday payment usage. The bank’s outlook suggests that while stablecoins continue to gain relevance as infrastructure within digital finance, expectations of rapid multi-trillion-dollar expansion may overstate near-term adoption trends and underestimate existing structural constraints shaping supply growth.
The analysis emphasized that current stablecoin demand is still dominated by crypto trading activity, including derivatives markets and decentralized finance platforms. JPMorgan observed that derivatives venues alone have added significant stablecoin balances as perpetual futures trading volumes increased, reinforcing the role of stablecoins as both transactional liquidity and collateral within crypto ecosystems. These uses remain central to how stablecoins circulate today, functioning primarily as a cash-equivalent layer for traders rather than a consumer-facing payment instrument. While interest in payment applications is growing, particularly for cross-border transfers and settlement efficiency, the bank suggested that such developments are unlikely to drive supply expansion at the same pace as trading-driven demand over the next several years.
JPMorgan also highlighted that wider adoption of stablecoins in payment systems does not necessarily require a proportional increase in circulating supply, pointing to token velocity as a key factor. As infrastructure improves and integration deepens, stablecoins can change hands more frequently without expanding the overall float. The report added that traditional banks and payment networks are actively developing tokenized deposits and blockchain-based settlement tools to maintain relevance in institutional flows. At the same time, central bank digital currency initiatives could introduce regulated alternatives that compete with private stablecoins. Together, these dynamics suggest a more balanced growth path in which stablecoins remain important to digital markets but face increasing competition and structural limits on expansion.
