US President Donald Trump has reignited debate around prediction markets after stating that a so called Venezuela leaker had been identified and jailed, following unusually precise betting activity tied to recent political events. Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump said the individual responsible for leaking sensitive information related to Venezuela was already in custody and could face a lengthy prison sentence. Although he did not reference betting platforms directly, the remarks quickly drew attention to a cluster of highly profitable wagers placed on Polymarket predicting the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The bets were made shortly before public confirmation of the event, prompting renewed speculation that nonpublic government information may have been used to gain an edge in political prediction markets increasingly watched by traders and regulators.
Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain reported that two wallets previously linked to the Venezuela focused bets have since gone inactive. According to the firm, one wallet transformed a stake of under six thousand dollars into roughly seventy five thousand dollars by wagering on Maduro being removed from office by late January 2026. Another account reportedly turned a mid five figure investment into more than four hundred thousand dollars before ceasing activity earlier this month. A third wallet associated with the same trading pattern remains active and recently placed a wager tied to Iranian political leadership outcomes. Analysts noted that all three wallets were funded days in advance and placed large positions only hours before key events, intensifying concerns that the timing reflected access to privileged intelligence rather than market insight.
The episode has added pressure on Polymarket as scrutiny grows over how prediction markets intersect with national security and political integrity. Legal experts note that leaking classified or sensitive government information can trigger severe penalties under US law, particularly when national interests are involved. The controversy also follows backlash against Polymarket’s recent handling of Venezuela related contracts, where the platform declined to settle bets tied to a US invasion scenario despite a targeted operation leading to Maduro’s capture. Critics accused the platform of inconsistent rule interpretation, fueling calls for reform. Separately, US lawmakers have signaled interest in restricting federal officials from trading prediction contracts linked to government actions when material nonpublic information may be involved, highlighting growing regulatory attention on the sector.
