Bitcoin remained locked in a narrow trading range below the 70,000 level on Tuesday as investors across global markets positioned cautiously ahead of the United States January employment report. Crypto prices briefly dipped alongside US equities at the market open before recovering, reflecting a familiar pattern seen in recent weeks where macro signals continue to drive short term sentiment.
By mid session, bitcoin was trading just above 69,000, little changed from the previous day. The broader crypto market showed mild weakness, with ether, XRP, and Solana all posting modest declines. Despite the pullback, analysts noted that selling pressure remained limited and that price action continued to be driven more by derivatives activity than by spot market flows.
Market data indicates that bitcoin’s recent drawdown is the most pronounced since the 2024 halving event, yet it has occurred against a backdrop of unusually low spot trading volume. This suggests that retail investors have largely stepped to the sidelines rather than rushing to exit positions. According to on chain and exchange analytics, leveraged traders in futures and perpetual contracts have been responsible for most of the recent volatility.
Analysts say this dynamic leaves bitcoin particularly sensitive to sudden position unwinds. Research from market data providers shows that prices are approaching key technical support levels that could influence whether the traditional four year cycle narrative remains intact. With spot demand muted, even relatively small shifts in derivatives positioning have had an outsized impact on price movements.
Trading firm Wintermute expects bitcoin to remain range bound in the near term as the market continues to search for direction. The firm noted that recent rebounds were driven largely by short squeezes in perpetual futures rather than fresh inflows of long term capital. After an extended period of low volatility, the return of sharper price swings has caught many traders off guard, reinforcing the cautious tone across crypto markets.
Attention is now firmly focused on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report for January, which is scheduled for release on Wednesday following a delay caused by a brief federal shutdown. Economists currently expect modest job growth, with forecasts pointing to around seventy thousand new jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate. However, comments from senior officials in the Trump administration have introduced fresh uncertainty.
White House trade counselor Peter Navarro suggested that markets should prepare for employment data that comes in weaker than expected, echoing earlier remarks from economic adviser Kevin Hassett who urged investors not to overreact if the numbers disappoint. These signals appear to have been registered in traditional markets, where US Treasury yields edged lower ahead of the report.
In theory, softer labor data and falling yields would support assets that benefit from easier financial conditions, including cryptocurrencies. Yet this cycle has challenged that assumption. Bitcoin has struggled to sustain upward momentum even as the Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates significantly in recent months. For now, traders appear unwilling to commit heavily in either direction until clearer signals emerge from macroeconomic data and broader risk markets.
