Bitcoin continues to trade within a constructive breakout structure, but upside momentum remains restrained as selling from older holders offsets improving short term conditions. After reclaiming its 20 day exponential moving average earlier this month, price action has followed a familiar historical pattern that previously led to meaningful rallies. The 20 day EMA is widely tracked as a short term trend signal, and recent closes above this level suggest buyers are regaining control. Similar setups in recent months produced follow through gains once confirmation arrived. However, the current advance has stalled just below key resistance near 92400, where repeated upper wicks indicate active supply. While the broader technical structure remains intact, the lack of a decisive close above resistance has delayed the next leg higher, keeping the market in consolidation rather than continuation mode.
Onchain data helps explain the hesitation. Short term selling pressure has largely vanished, with activity from recent buyers collapsing sharply over the past week. Coins held for less than a month are no longer being distributed into strength, suggesting that weak hands have already exited. At the same time, standard long term holders, typically defined as those holding for more than five months, have resumed net accumulation even through recent local highs. This behavior historically supports higher prices, as it reflects conviction rather than speculative churn. The remaining source of supply is coming from ultra long holders, a cohort that has held coins for extended periods and tends to distribute selectively during strong market phases. Although their selling has slowed meaningfully since the start of the year, it has not yet flipped to net accumulation, creating a ceiling that price has struggled to break through.
For the bullish scenario to regain momentum, Bitcoin needs a clean daily close above the 92400 level. Such a move would likely confirm the breakout structure and open the path toward the next resistance zone near 94870, with a measured upside target implying roughly 12 percent additional gains from current levels. That outcome depends on continued support above the 20 day EMA and further reduction in supply from ultra long holders. On the downside, failure to hold the 89230 support area would weaken the structure and raise the risk of a deeper retracement. A decisive move below the mid 84000 region would invalidate the bullish setup entirely and suggest a more prolonged correction. For now, the broader structure remains constructive, but conviction from the oldest holders appears to be the final variable. Once that supply pressure fades, any delayed breakout could accelerate quickly.
