Citigroup has reduced its price targets for bitcoin and ether, citing slowing progress on U.S. digital asset legislation and weaker market fundamentals. The Wall Street bank now expects bitcoin to reach around $112,000 over the next 12 months, down from its previous forecast of $143,000. Ether’s revised target stands at approximately $3,175, compared with an earlier projection of $4,304. Despite the downgrade, the updated outlook still implies notable upside from current price levels.
The bank attributed the revision primarily to reduced expectations for regulatory catalysts in the United States. According to Citigroup analysts, the likelihood of meaningful crypto legislation being passed this year has declined, with current estimates suggesting about a 60 percent chance. Regulatory clarity has been widely viewed as a key driver for institutional adoption, and any delay in policy development could slow the pace at which new capital enters the market.
Exchange traded fund inflows remain one of the most important factors supporting the crypto market, but Citigroup has also lowered its expectations in this area. The bank now forecasts around $10 billion in bitcoin ETF inflows and about $2.5 billion for ether over the next year. While these figures still represent significant demand, they are below earlier projections and reflect a more cautious outlook for institutional investment.
Analysts noted that ETF flows have continued even amid geopolitical uncertainty, helping stabilize the market during periods of volatility. However, they emphasized that sustained price growth will likely depend on stronger and more consistent inflows over time. Without a clear acceleration in demand, the pace of recovery for major cryptocurrencies could remain limited.
In addition to regulatory delays, Citigroup pointed to weaker network activity as another factor influencing its outlook. Onchain data suggests that user engagement and transaction volumes have not recovered strongly following previous market peaks. Ether has been particularly affected, with softer activity on the Ethereum network contributing to its relatively weaker performance compared with bitcoin.
The broader crypto market has also struggled to regain strong upward momentum after bitcoin reached record highs in late 2025. Since then, prices have moved within a more constrained range as investors weigh macroeconomic uncertainty, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risks. These factors have contributed to a more cautious investment environment across both digital assets and traditional financial markets.
Despite these challenges, Citigroup maintains that institutional participation continues to play a stabilizing role in the market. The presence of ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, and professional investors has helped reduce extreme volatility compared with earlier phases of the crypto cycle. Analysts suggest that while short-term growth may be more measured, the long-term outlook for digital assets remains supported by structural adoption trends.
The revised forecasts reflect a shift toward more moderate expectations rather than a fundamentally negative outlook. Citigroup’s analysis suggests that while the path to higher prices may take longer than previously anticipated, the underlying drivers of the crypto market, including institutional demand and technological development, remain intact.
