Prediction market platform Kalshi said it does not plan to allow users to trade contracts tied to whether college athletes enter the transfer portal, stepping back after sharp public criticism from the leadership of U.S. college sports. The company clarified that while it had sought regulatory certification for such contracts, certification does not guarantee a market will be launched. Kalshi said it routinely seeks approval for a wide range of potential markets that are never made available to users. The clarification followed reports that the company had explored contracts related to athlete transfer decisions, which quickly drew scrutiny given the sensitive nature of college sports and athlete welfare. Kalshi emphasized that it has no immediate intention to list these products and described the certification process as exploratory rather than a commitment to launch.
The potential for transfer related prediction markets triggered a strong response from the National Collegiate Athletic Association. NCAA President Charlie Baker publicly condemned the idea, arguing that wagers on individual athlete decisions would increase pressure on student athletes and risk undermining competition integrity and recruiting processes. Baker said athletes already face harassment tied to betting outcomes and warned that extending prediction markets to transfer decisions would worsen those dynamics. The transfer portal plays a central role in college athletics by formally signaling an athlete’s openness to changing schools, making it a particularly sensitive area for any form of wagering. The NCAA has long opposed sports betting formats it believes could directly impact athlete behavior or well being.
Kalshi responded by pushing back against claims that it operates outside regulatory oversight. The company said it is federally regulated under U.S. commodities law and operates as a designated contract market permitted to list derivatives tied to real world events. Kalshi noted that it complies with extensive federal rules governing its operations, distinguishing its model from unregulated betting platforms. While Kalshi and rival platforms already offer event contracts tied to the outcomes of college games, the episode highlights growing scrutiny around how far prediction markets can extend into sports related topics. The decision to step away from athlete transfer markets reflects mounting regulatory and public pressure as prediction platforms expand into increasingly controversial areas.
