Wall Street analysts have lowered their price targets for Coinbase after the largest publicly traded crypto exchange reported fourth quarter results that fell short of expectations. The earnings miss has renewed scrutiny on trading volumes, retail activity and fee dynamics across the digital asset sector, which has faced sustained volatility since the start of the year.
JPMorgan maintained its overweight rating on Coinbase shares but reduced its price target to 252 from 290, citing weaker crypto prices and softer trading activity during the quarter. The bank noted that lower volumes directly affected transaction revenue, while operating expenses rose approximately 22 percent year over year. Analysts also highlighted a shift in customer activity toward lower fee Advanced trading and Coinbase One subscription products, which compressed overall take rates.
The take rate, defined as the percentage of trading volume retained as revenue, remains a critical metric for exchanges. JPMorgan analysts lowered their forward fee assumptions, pointing to a more cautious outlook on market capitalization and spot trading volumes across major tokens. Coinbase shares have declined roughly 40 percent so far this year and were recently trading near 150 in pre market activity after closing at 141.09 in the prior session.
Canaccord also reduced its price target on the stock to 300 from 400, while maintaining a buy rating. The firm adjusted its near term estimates following the earnings report, warning that the first quarter could prove challenging for the broader crypto industry if market conditions remain subdued. However, Canaccord emphasized Coinbase’s profitability and scale advantages compared with smaller competitors.
Analysts at the brokerage highlighted strategic initiatives including the company’s push toward an integrated trading ecosystem often referred to internally as an Everything Exchange. They pointed to expanding use cases for USDC in commerce, as well as growth in decentralized finance applications built on Base and Ethereum networks. The addition of Deribit during the year was described as a strategic move to strengthen derivatives capabilities and support cross selling opportunities beyond the United States.
Crypto linked equities have broadly mirrored the turbulence in digital asset markets. Bitcoin remains significantly below its late 2025 highs and is down about 25 percent year to date, contributing to reduced retail engagement and lower spot trading turnover. Despite near term headwinds, some analysts argue that Coinbase continues to gain incremental market share as global trading volumes and notional activity expand across asset classes.
With stock buybacks expected to continue and longer term Ebitda projections underpinning revised valuations, investors are closely monitoring how trading volumes, fee structures and product diversification efforts shape performance in the coming quarters.
